Does the U.S. produce too many
college graduates—or not enough?
CURRICULUM: Progress & The Future: Searching For Answers
Summary: Fewer than half of Americans graduate from college. That may be sufficient. We may have all the college graduates we need, and then some. If you consider the present job market, that’s a reasonable conclusion, but your perspective may be limited. In the long run, more college graduates, and a generally educated society and workforce, may produce greater economic benefits to individuals and the national economy. A large-scale investment in future public good is required, along with a change in national thinking about the key components in the U.S. economy.
Basic Understanding:
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Each year (U.S.): about 3 million new high school graduates, under 2M college graduates
Average lifetime earnings (45 year basis): $1.5M HS; $2.5M college
Four-year average cost of college: $150K private, $50K public (20x ROI)
College debt is messy, but it’s a modest factor when taken over a 40+ year working life
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How many open jobs each year? (New jobs + replacement workers) - deep dive into stats
About 700K new openings for about 2M high school/college graduates
Greatest need/opportunity: teachers, accountants, engineers (and some other categories)
About 25% of jobs require BA, BS or better
Issues:
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Challenging calculus: matching graduate degrees with shifting economic need.
Serving present needs focuses on individual jobs and status quo.
Forecasting future needs is risky; good decisions promote careers and economic growth.
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How do new ideas about college affect supply and demand? (MOOCs, community colleges, making it big without a degree, etc.)
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Korea, Japan, Canada, Russian Federation: about 20% more graduates than US; gap widening
Trend: if U.S. parents do not attend college, low likelihood (29%) that child will attend—among lowest of OECD nations
Difference begins early: US is 28th among pre-school enrollment of four year olds
Will this trend affect long-term U.S. economic success? Will it deepen the income inequality?
Open Questions:
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Age-old question: is the purpose of college to train people for jobs, or provide a life foundation?
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Is college the answer for half the U.S. population? Is there a better way to train for the future?
How does income inequality fit in? Do we continue to grow the divide?
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Current emphasis on individuals: do statistics and trends apply to me, or am I unique?
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Do “foreigners” skew the equation? (6% of U.S. college students are non-US residents)
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Should colleges encourage or discourage free will?
Discourage free will: medical, legal, engineering, some/many sciences — where rules are based upon best practices, safety, and fundamental research
Encourage free will: creative, innovative, personal responsibility, collaboration, exploration
Conversation Pit: Possible Topics
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Today's college students struggle to pay loans, secure meaningful employment
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And yet, without college, the individual struggle is more challenging
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More education, better education leads to greater economic and social success
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College education overrated, no longer essential (big companies founded by dropouts: Microsoft, Apple, etc.)
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Does the number of foreigners in U.S. colleges who then return home help us or hurt us?[1]
Notebook Contents
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Statistics: U.S. graduation rates for high school, college, advanced degrees (trends over time)
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Same statistics: selected nations, also suggested regions (trends over time)
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Statistics: employment breakout--how it looks for college graduates, past and future
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Connecting two key ideas: long-term connection between graduation rates and economic growth
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Examples of Web Assets
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Does America really need more college grads?[2]
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Too many college grad, or too few?[3]
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Interview with young college graduates, who a year after graduation, have not found jobs[4]
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Many entry level jobs are available, but people are not qualified enough to fill them[5]
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Is student loan debt worth it? [6]
Scholars, Books, Other Sources
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Anthony Carnevale - Georgetown University - promote value of education, improve efficiency and equity in access [7]
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ADD MORE
Creative / Educational Opportunities
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ADD MORE
[1] http://www.voanews.com/content/number-of-international-students-at-us-colleges-rising/1795246.html
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4stnSlWulc
[3] http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/many-college-grads/
[5] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/three-million-open-jobs-in-us-but-whos-qualified/
[6] http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/04/pf/college/student-loan-debt/